I took some heat from my friends for standing up for Obama’s Nobel speech in December. It seemed to me like the war stuff in it was a necessary way of preempting churlish domestic media talk that he’s a peacenik in order to get to its eloquent defense of human rights-based multilateralism. There was even this great line about how we honor American ideals “by upholding them not when it’s easy, but when it is hard.” Then came Northwest Flight 253, an attempted terrorist attack that didn’t even succeed. And now Obama is putting into place a de facto system of racial/ethnic/religious profiling at airport security points.

We need to call this what it is: a security risk. If you are one of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, a president who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia is sending you the message that you are considered a threat. Not even Michael Chertoff and Mike Hayden think this is defensible. That ought to tell you something profound. al-Qaeda shows every sign of diminishing potency — that is, its ability to attract qualified recruits and have its message resonate among the world’s Muslims — while U.S. military, intelligence and law enforcement capabilities increase. Its strategy — its only strategy — has always been to get the U.S. to overreact, overreach and counterproductively lash out and draw Muslims into al-Qaeda’s corner. Usama bin Laden is really explicit about this.

From this perspective, Matt Duss is wrong and Bill Kristol really is correct: al-Qaeda couldn’t pull off a successful terrorist attack on Flight 253. But it’s getting its victory nevertheless, every time a Pakistani family is pulled out of line on an airport and searched. Kristol doesn’t understand why he’s right, of course, and he’s actually doing al-Qaeda’s work for it here, but it’s nevertheless true. And this is happening not while the hated George W. Bush is president, but during the term of the man who stood up in Cairo to say that America and Islam are not at war. If this sort of dangerous hysteria is what emerges after a failed attack, imagine what will happen if al-Qaeda, God forbid, pulls off something at home.

This is strikingly similar to David Brooks' realistic expectations for our security.