Conservative Take

Here's what the editors over at NRO think of the Palin pick. I'm still a little mistified. I saw Rob Portman touting her achievements as a city councilwoman today on Hardball!

MUST SKIM: for any of you who were at the speech last night, this is outrageous. Byron York was there - and takes a look at Obama through two drunk/high, unemployed, hippy supporters. He's lying and/or misleading through the whole thing. They didn't even serve beer (yet he implies that in the first sentence). But to paint the thing as the next Woodstock while there were 25 Military top-brass on stage offering their endoresement on stage is misleading - low - and unethical. It's like finding 2 skinheads in MSP and asking them about McCain.

One More: The National Review is unbelievable. From a review on the speech:

If all you knew of Obama was what he presented to you in his speech, you would think of him as a typical Democratic politician improved by the addition of a bit more thoughtfulness and idealism than the average representative of the class. You would be amazed to learn of his extremely close relationship to a radical anti-American preacher; or that he has followed a no-enemies-to-the-left approach to politics that put him in the company of an unrepentant terrorist. You would not suspect that he favors taxpayer-funded abortion or drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. You would not realize that he has crossed party lines far less often than McCain. You would not imagine that he had ever voted against funding for troops in war zones. It would not cross your mind that this denouncer of hardball, self-interested politics might be having his campaign intimidate reporters out of looking into his record.

... also this (which is TRUE): "He presented McCain as the lone holdout against a consensus on withdrawal from Iraq that includes President Bush"

Fine, I Relent

Ok, it now looks like the Obama speech won't get a news cycle ... and McCain's tactic paid off. However, I'm not sure his Palin-pick-tactic will pay off. First, it looks like a total pander for any HRC voters (which were either going to vote for him b/c they only care about voting for a woman, or not vote for him because they actually had issues they cared about). Second, it makes McC look very hypocritical for attacking Obama's experience - McCain always talks about having a VP who's "ready" to be President ... and picks a chick who's 2 years from being a mayor of a small Alaskan town!! Now she's one 72-year old heartbeat away from the White House?!!? Third, Biden will destroy her in the debates (I'm interested to what in her "record" she'll point to).

The one place it may help is in the suburban/white/woman demographic. They're arguably torn - have some conservative social issues, but economic justice concerns, and are excited by woman and black man running, but concerned about taxes, etc. The Palin pick may give them another reason to stay in the GOP column. Maybe.

I don't know jack about Palin. I'm sure I'll learn more. And I'm sure we'll talk about it more.

Update: She is a looker though! This is the most exposure she's gotten since Van Halen's hot for teacher video

Can I Get a News Cycle?

I've been AWOL w/ the posting (The DNC has given me plenty other stuff to do). But I wanted to share a few thoughts on Obama's speech last night. I was there - and haven't had a chance to read up all the pundits on it (though Brooks and Noonan and EJ are on my to-do list) - but I have a few thougths on my own before we talk about McCain's VP pander-pick.

I thought Obama started off slow and kind of generic. But he quickly gained momentum. There's a lot to say after 8 years of Bush, and he touched on about all of it. He was specific (although not specific enough for Fox and others who don't want to look at the 12-pt plans on his website - under "policy"), and inspiring, and delivered some great one-liners ("change comes to washington" etc.). I think he was firm with McCain and drew all the right distinctions without hitting below the belt. And I thought he was bold in talking about guns/gays/abortion/etc. in a way that ordinary Americans talk about those issues and in a way that backs up his argument that he is a bridge builder. The point that the other side likes to make "Big elections out of small things" was a poignant follow-up as well. Plus he ended with "hold firmly ... to the hope that we profess" - which was beautiful.

I may have some other thoughts once I read it or re-watch it. But my initial, whirl wind, thought is that you couldn't have asked for a better speech. He lived up to expectations.

Update: Brooks is cynical today - back to his GOP war cries. Last time he used a Steinbeck closing it was way cooler. . . Noonan is pretty spot on

Convention News, Day 3

DNC: looks like the ratings are higher than '04

Anti-Feminist PUMAs

Michelle Cottle blogs in TNR that the Hillary hold outs aren't helping women - and are decidedly anti-feminist. Especially that gal in the new McCain commercial who said she was voting for McCain, then didn't know that he wants to overturn Roe.

The High School Vote

Daddy Yankee endorses McCain

Seriously, You Need to Leave

Maliki said "cut and run" - gave in to the terrorists - and embolden the enemy. Now Al Qaeda knows to ramp up attacks in 2011.

Convention News, Day 2

- NYT: David Brooks on how Obama has to "stay true" and buck the party armchair strategists (like Begala and Carville). I disagree that all of his "minus" themes should be ignored - but they should definitely not take front stage.
- McC: McCain comes close to questioning Obama's patriotism
- Biden: tears up telling the Delaware delegation what an honor it is to be VP - but that it pales in comparison to representing Del.
- Both Candidates: condemn Russia for recognizing S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. Can someone tell me why we care that much? We recognized Kosovo this year.
- Anarchists: will disrupt tonight
- Biden: the plagarism thing is coming up (but I still think it's weak)
- Ratings: Monday's viewing was "tepid" (but doesn't include cable viewing - which is probably huge ... and doesn't compare to years past)
- EMK: Kennedy left a Denver hospital bed to speak (he got kidney stones upon arrival)
- Assassination plot: foiled in Denver supposedly (the picture is scary)

The Onion

"Bush Told to Sign Birthday Treaty for Someone Named 'Kyoto'"

Convention News, Day 1

-Media: Jon Stewart blasts the media at DU.
-Speech: Bon Jovi and Springsteen will play
-HRC: Hillary "does not approve" of McCain's new ad (showing a Hillary supporter voting McCain)
-Clintons: Bill doesn't want to give the speech Obama wants him to - wants to tout his accomplishments instead
-Biden: goes to Boneys BBQ for lunch
-EMK: Ted Kennedy will attend tonight - despite the brain tumor
-Barry: in a Q&A a woman said her husband was on the fence, and Obama called him on her cell
-Barry: Obama prepares for his speech in solitude - for 3 days - at the Park Hyatt ... in pencil, in longhand.

Usain in the Membrane

"Lightning" Bolt explains his 100m race. Hilarious.

Me and George

NYT reports that George Orwell diaries, pre-WWII, will be released in blog form. 1984 should be required reading for anyone who lived during the Bush presidency.

Biden's Greatest HIts

(via Marinade) These are some FANTASTIC clips. Watch them.

- The BEST: Going off on HRC, Richardson, Edwards in hilarious fashion. "give us 100 democrats"
-"This is malarky!"
- "Kids are dyin' man, this is crap"

What Obama-Biden Means

I think John Dickerson over at Slate has the best take on the Biden pick.

Did anyone see the Springfield speech? Biden is passionate, colloquial, smart, and inspiring. The only thing he does is say "literally" way too much. But it's those idiosyncrasies that makes him so believable, genuine and endearing.

UPDATE: also, did you know Biden's net worth is only $100,000-150,000? He had to take out a 2nd mortgage to pay for his kids' college. And he only has one house.

I Called It!!!

My Dream Ticket!! O-Joe!

Biden Evidence?

Andrea Mitchell reported that Bayh and Kaine have been notified they're not it. And Ambinder reporst - i LIKE it - that there's ONE private charter flight from Midway to Deleware tonight!! Sweet!!

Lizza is in Colorado Early!

And has a good New Yorker piece on Gov. Ritter - and how politics, western-style, is going to be the future of the party. But will it mean dismantling the New Deal coalition?

Read it - I learned a BUNCH about Colorado politics. Good job, Ryan.

Also, page 4 has a cartoon I actually laughed at! Kudos, New Yorker!

Noonan's Take

Noonan's always thoughtful (read her new column here) - and I think her description of Obama's abortion response at Saddleback is right. I was surprised at how unprepared and flighty he was. Aside from that, she suggests that a one-term pledge would be a winner for McCain. I tend not to think that will work b/c regular people already assume their voting for a 4yr term. . . but, reinforcing the idea that it won't be a dynasty may have some effect on some people. In any event, I still maintain that the public sides with dems on all the big issues this year - and if Obama makes sure people know they agree with him - he'll win.

Brooks Redeems Himself

David Brooks wants Biden too! A really good article - you learn some good tidbits - and he pretty much explains all of the reasons why I love him. But he forgets to mention that Biden would be awesome at matching McCain on foreign policy.

Don't Want Nobody Nobody Sent

I've been checking in on the National Review pretty regular, and Stanley Kurtz keeps on blogging about how he's close to getting the dirt on Obama and Bill Ayers. Well, the Trib reports that Mayor Daley has used some good ol' machine politics to put the squish on Kurtz.

Bow-chicka-bow-wow

My Favorite Ad

(via Marinade) This new Obama ad is great. Hits home - and ends with a zinger.

UPDATE: McCain strikes back - hits Obama on Rezko

Skewed Analogy

(via Syd O)

Means vs. Ends

(via VH1) Robert Reich has some thoughts on the dilemma facing Obama (and Democrats as a whole) when they campaign - use dirty tactics in order to win - or eschew those tactics with hopes of ushering a new type of governance. With talk of how Obama should "hit harder" this is a good reminder of where our priorities should be.

UPDATE: Obama hits back with this ad.

Bush Gutting the ESA on His Way Out

AP reports that DOI Secretary Kempthorne is issuing new changes that would allow agencies make decisions on endangered species without getting input from FWS and other agencies charged with providing the data to make informed decisions on such matters! This end-around essentially allows agencies that are supposed to comply with ESA to make their own interpretations of ESA.

McCain is Flush With Cash - and Outspending Obama

Newsweek has a good explanation of how McCain, while consistently raising less money, is able to outspend Obama. Essentially (1) the RNC is rich - and McCain has access to that, (2) he'll get $84M in public financing, (3) the GOP already has a good ground game (which Obama is spending money to match) and can, therefore, use money for TV and Radio.

Zing!

Ignatius has a great column on how McCain-style thinking may have contributed to the Georgia/Russia situation. McCain loves TV friendly "zingers" too much, promises what the US can't give, and has a top advisor who lobbies for Georgia.

Dowd Is Ruthless!

MoDo goes crazy with the idea that HRC and McCain are in kahootz!

Yglesias on Brooks

Matt has good thoughts on David Brooks' column from yesterday. As a long-time McCain backer - Brooks is "sad" over the new McCain.

A World Without College

(via Syd O) An interesting article in the WSJ arguing that getting rid of B.A. requirements for jobs, and replacing them with job-specific nationwide exams, would be better.

Proof McCain Cheated?

We know he was in his motorcade and not in a quiet chamber ... but did he really know the questions at Saddleback beforehand? Or was he just well prepared to spout the GOP TP's? This post argues that McCain did know about the SCOTUS question because he asked Warren if they should "go back" to that question - when Warren had never mentioned the Supreme Court to him! Freudian slip? You judge.

My Ex

The Politico reports that Sen. Coleman mentioned the other day that if it wasn't for the fact that the RNC is in his home town of St. Paul - he wouldn't even be going!!! I also heard that 20% of GOP Senators have made lame excuses why they won't be attending.

Don't You Want This Guy? I know I do

Getty

From the Page.

Now, if he is the VP - then I'll be really happy - as I was a "Biden for VP" supporter back when he was still running for president! Here's the rationale from TNR which I completely agree with (make sure to watch the clip - that's why he'll be great with the VP smackdown). Ezra Klein explains why he's a good attack dog on foreign policy (b/c he doesnt' give the GOP the high ground but instead assumes that the GOP has messed it all up)

Is It Too Early To Be Nervous?

Brooks has a pretty good column on how the McCain campaign is a lot more traditional than McCain would have liked - and its working. I think this is what frustrates people like me who really liked McCain ... he's not the same guy. In any event, the conventional campaign is working better than the maverick one he'd planned.

Let's just hope that the DNC and the debates give Obama some momentum (the "bump"), because his campaign has been a little static. Maybe it's just that joe six-pack hasn't started paying attention yet, otherwise do we need to be nervous?

Saddleback

I'm finally getting a chance to watch Obama/McCain at Saddleback. My impression is that Obama (facing a stricter crowd - but getting A LOT of applause) was a little verbose (where Warren seemed anxious to move on sometimes), thoughtful, and probably had a closer biblical understanding of the issues (even when talking around the GOP hot button issues). McCain, on the other hand, was pretty good - more intimate than usual - but didn't show a lot of depth. He mostly shot out short GOP talking points that were well recieved by the crowd.

Now, all the stories I've seen say that McCain won (and claim that's why the Obama camp claims he heard the questions beforehand) ... but all the stories are written by conservatives! Byron York in NRO (here and here), Gerson in the Post (here). It shoudn't be surprising that when a conservative is asked questions on GOP issues, and knows how he should respond - and does so ... and conservatives evaluate the perfomance, they think the conservative won! Duh! Essentially, that's what these articles do - they grade McCain high on GOP issues and ignore the others. I'd like to hear some liberals write on this.

UPDATE: E.J. has the liberal view.

As for me, I think Obama performed well. He's not going to gain many votes from that crowd (although judging by the applause, he had a bunch), but he is going to keep some from voting against him.

Politico has a more even look at what remarks will show up in later debates and commercials.

UPDATE: lets stop talking about the "sound cone" and talk about their answers.

Kristol

The NYT had to make its Fourth correction to Bill Kristol's column today. It's funny how when the uber-conservatives leave their fantasy world at Nat'l Review, Weekly Standard, and Fox, and have to abide by actual journalistic standards, we find that they tend to be less than accurate.

Takes One to Know One

Leon Panetta - Bill's guy that Obama charged with winning over Clinton donors says their "sense of entitlement" is way beyond what he expected.

Olympic Handball

I remember having the exact same reaction when NBC played handball this week ... like "what the hell sort of game is this?" A funny article on how USA would dominate if we cared to play the stupid thing.

The Poet

Some new 60's era Dylan poems - written to accompany artsy pictures - resurface and will be published in a new book this fall.

Dancing Queen? Really?

In case you missed it - McCain claimed that Abba's Dancing Queen was his favorite all time song! He claimed that his time in the Hanoi Hilton cut him off from music - and explains his bad taste. But he was a POW years before that song came out! Anyway, I'll be voting for the guy who likes Kanye, U2, the Stones, and Bruce. Which one sounds more working class?

The End of Airplanes

I've done a lot of traveling this summer and have been thinking about what peak oil, climate change, etc. will do for the airline industry and air travel in general. My initial thought was that all the new technology would be put towards cars - leaving enough fossil fuels for planes. Pretty simplistic I know. Well, TNR has a more thought out piece on how rising oil prices/shortages will change the world as we know it. The cheap travel era is about over and peak oil will affect vacations, family visits, business, commuting, freight, online buying, military strength (jets, ICBMs), food availabilty, medical care, etc. ... the list goes on and on.

Better get settled in where you are and learn to live off the land and your community.

The Hold Steady

A nice little RS interview of frontman Craig Finn. He likes Zeppelin and Obama - no wonder they're my favorite band.

Poignant

Georgia for McCain

CSM and Halperin think that the USSR (ahem, Russia) and Georgia war has helped McCain more, politically. This is sort of annoying - the MSM assumes that if you "talk tough" then you win on defense. Nevermind all of Bush's long, outspoken support for Georgia probably made Saakashvili actually think that we would do something to help. And now Bush and McCain ('we are all Georgians') talk tough - but what are they doing? If McCain talks to Saakashvili every day, what is he telling him? And if Bush was hanging out with Putin in Bejing, why did it take Sarkozy to broker the cease fire?

Just because Obama's on vacation he can't have a good response? It seems to me someone who called for restraint on both sides (recognizing Georgia provoked the conflict by stomping on pro-Russia movements in Ossestia and Abkhazia) should get some props. Why doesn't he attack the GOP for being "all talk."

This Confirms It

I want to see Tropic Thunder.

Also, I caught Tell No One at the indie theater - a french thriller ... part fugitive, part borne - very enjoyable movie, I'd recommend it.

You Said It, Man

... And didn't McCain mention yesterday that "In the 21st Century nations don't invade other nations"

Biden's Out

It's been released that Biden and Bayh are speaking on wednesday of the DNC - that's too bad b/c that means Biden isn't going to be VP. He was always my favorite pick. . . at least he'll still be a heck of a surrogate.

So who's it going to be: Webb? Strickland? Wouldn't Hagel be great?

Why Are There So Many New Olympic Records?

I've been wondering the same thing - did you see the 4x100? Everyone beat the WR. Well, Slate has a pretty good explanation. It has a little something to do with nanotech, too.

How Big a Deal Is Georgia Anyway

Yglesias has the notion that it isn't that big in the grand scheme of things - unless the neo-cons over emphasize and provoke it....

Hope This Doesn't Backfire Somehow

Anne Kornblut over at WaPo confirms that HRC's name will be nominated at the convention. I can definitely see how important it is for some women to get the chance to cast a presidential ballot for a woman - but on the other hand, there is a chance that too much of the convention will be about the Clintons (as EJ and Maureen Dowd wrote on yesterday). Obama's speech better be as good as advertised so that the DNC split isn't the only thing remembered.

UPDATE: maybe Obama should go on Colbert just to insure his bump.

A Good Economy for Some

Yglesias mentions a study out showing the pre-tax income distribution to the top 1% is the highest since the stock market crash!

Ted Turner's Network

CNN just announced a new pundit roundtable - with 3 conservatives, a HuffPost liberal, and a WaPo reporter. I much prefer MSNBC .... but at least when people say their liberal they're being pretty accurate.

Evolution in a Nutshell

(Via Mayo) The NYT guest op-ed has a really good - and brief - argument why teaching evolution is relevant, and even essential. I have to agree. Her 3rd point - that teaching kids to discount evidence at an early age has horrible results when they eventually become adults and have to rely on real world facts - is extremely relevant considering the ideology underlying the Bush administrations' disasters.

Love Your Enemy

Focus on the Family asked people to "pray for rain of biblical proportions" during Obama's speech. They said it was supposed to be "mildly humorous."

Stop Paying Income Tax! Now!

According to Aaron Russo's the income tax is unconstitutional!! Russo owned the Kinetic Playground nightclub in Chicago, brought Zep to America, managed Bette Midler, and ran for Nevada's governorship ... and now he produced a documentary, "America: from Freedom to Fascism" that ran on PBS last night. I started watching because I thought it was a crock and I was going to pick it apart - but it actually made some good arguments.

Here's the pitch: there is absolutely no law you can point to that says the IRS can tax Joe Citizen's income. The income tax is not a "direct" or "indirect" tax (the only 2 provided for in the Constitution), and the 16th Amendment - which straight up says Congress can tax income - has been interpreted by the Supreme Court as confering no new taxing power to Congress. Essentially, they couldn't tax income before the 16th - and they can't afterwards. And in any event, the original understanding of income is actually "gains", so tax on your total income is illegal. The only way the IRS gets away with this is (1) intimidation and picking on poor ignorant people, and (2) the trial courts don't follow the Supreme Court and just assume if someone doesn't file a 1040 they're guilty of something.

Now - I'm still super skeptical because I know lawyers - and if there was a chance to win a lawsuit, they'd have tried it. I doubt they'd let the constitutionality of the income tax to go unquestioned. So, I haven't done the research, but I'm pretty sure we still need to pay them. Here are some FAQs.

Shoes are Bad

(Via Syd O) Really - they are! We should all go barefoot because shoes mess up our life. Don't believe me? Check this out. Even the Clarks shoes heir (who makes wallabees) swears that shoes are bad.

I guess Rick Rubin was right all along.

More Variety at Walmart Makes You NOT Poor

Am I reading this right? The Economist reports on a study by two U of Chicago professor who claims that a closer look at wage equality standards shows that the Rich/Poor gap is minimal or non-existant! It's been accepted that the wage gap has increased since the 80's, but the new study takes a look at the inflation rates and shopping habits of the Rich and the Poor, respectively, and concludes that all is well. Essentially, the rich choose to spend more money on better goods (like organic milk) and on services (as opposed to food, etc.) - where prices have gone up - so their buying power has decreased. The poor, on the other hand, buy mostly durable goods (food) and cheap chineses products (which are cheap and multiplying), so their buying power is about the same as it was.

To me, that doesn't explain that the poor are any closer to the rich in what they can actually buy. The fact that the rich have money to choose expensive food and nice amenities, while the poor are stuck with a broad variety of bad, cheap chinese food and products doesn't mean the wage gap is any closer - it just shows what goes on in the real world! Poor people are stuck with cheap goods and the rich have the option to buy better stuff. The study seems to imply that the rich could be buying cheaper stuff (duh!) - but they don't (duh!) - and when you compare what the rich people could be buying with the poor there isn't that much difference. This way you are really letting the rich create their own benchmark: if they all buy yachts - which have high inflation - then that cancels out any minimal rise in Ramen noodles and supports the claim that the wage gap is minimal. This is NUTS. If anything, the choices in and of themselves should prove the expanding wage gap - that the rich are buying more yachts and the poor are still buying Ramen.

Someone who's better at this than me please set me straight. It's a good read in any event.

The NYT Makes Us Less Safe

Is Jack Goldsmith's conclusion based on the NYT disclosure of the warrantless wiretap program back in '06. Goldsmith was head of OLC (DoJ's Office of Legal Counsel) after John Yoo (the guy who tore up the Geneva Convention, said waterboarding was legal, etc. - and is now a Prof at Berkely). I like Goldsmith and he seems to be one of the few inside watchdogs during that time. His TNR article - despite the provocative title - is very well reasoned. Essentially, Goldsmith claims that the NYT's other disclosures (the later, more specific ones) did hurt our intel gathering abilities ...while he has less beef with the disclosure of the wiretap program.

Why did the NYT go overboard? Insightfully, Goldsmith channels Justice Jackson: "when everything is classified - nothing is classified." Because W's administration was the most secretive in recent memory, there was no legitimacy, which led to excessive inside leaks (by the discontented) and over-publishing by the NYT.

Georgia - not the Ray Charles one

Did this war in Georgia come out of nowhere? Now 1,500 are dead. I vaguely remember an economist article way back on the tensions - mainly over a proposed pipeline through Georgia that Putin didn't want (because he's got a Petrostate ... using all the oil/gas reserves as his main weapon ... remember Yukos?). Anyway, here's a good wrap up of the background on the conflict and where it stands.

In sum:

Georgia’s predicament seems very simple from the vantage point of Tbilisi — 1921, 1938 — but extremely complicated from a great remove. Russia threatens Georgia, but Georgia threatens Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia looks like a crocodile to Georgia, but Georgia looks to Russia like the cats’ paw of the West. One party has all the hard power it could want, the other all the soft. And now, while the world was looking elsewhere, the frozen conflict between them has thawed and cracked. It will take a great deal of care and attention even to put things back to where they were before.

Help! I Need Somebody

I'm up in the North Woods for a while - pretty far away from any happenings going on in your world. If any of you come across some good reading be sure to post it in the comment section below. And I'll get up to date when I return.

Thanks!

Teflon

(Via Syd O) A good article on why, even though Obama's not perfect, his imperfections don't stick.